Why Trump sudden leadership via COVID’s Operation Warp Speed could repeat with a bold AI Treaty
By Rufo Guerreschi, February 23th, 2026
Abstract: In January 2020, Trump called COVID "totally under control." By May, he launched Operation Warp Speed — the fastest vaccine development in history. Experts said it was impossible. He did it in under a year. The same pattern can repeat with AI. Trump isn't an ideologue — he's a dealmaker who pivots fast once convinced of a threat's full scale. 53% believe it will "destroy humanity" someday, and 77% favor a strong AI treaty, with concern rising monthly, the political ground is shifting fast. What will be his "hospitals overflowing" moment? We believe one of a mix of three forces: spiking citizen concern, a major AI accident, and a powerful joint pitch from trusted voices — Musk, Vance, Bannon, Pope Leo XIV, Altman, and Amodei. The same instincts applied to AI could produce the most consequential treaty since the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The demand for leadership exists. What's missing is the supply.
In January 2020, Donald Trump called the coronavirus "totally under control." By May 15, he had launched Operation Warp Speed — the most ambitious public-private partnership in modern American history — betting billions on multiple vaccine candidates simultaneously. Experts, media, and betting markets said it was impossible: vaccines take 8 to 12 years. The Lancet was skeptical. Vanity Fair called it "dangerous and likely to fail." CNN complained about "untested methods."
Trump did it in under one year.
The first Americans received their shots in December 2020, roughly eight months after the program launched. Operation Warp Speed remains, by wide consensus, one of the most consequential government achievements in decades — acknowledged even by Trump's fiercest critics.
Here's the part that matters most for what comes next: Trump didn't need to be an epidemiologist to act. He needed to be convinced that the threat was real, that it could destroy his presidency, and that a bold response could define his legacy. Once those conditions aligned, he moved faster than the entire public health establishment thought possible.
The same pattern can — and we believe will — repeat with AI.
The Current Posture: Pragmatism, Not Ideology
Trump currently treats artificial intelligence primarily as an economic competitiveness race — more investment, less regulation, beat China. He rolled back Biden-era AI safety guardrails on day one. His July 2025 AI Action Plan was "build, baby, build."
But this isn't ideology. Trump has never been a deregulation purist. He's a dealmaker who reads the room. And he has, in fact, acknowledged AI dangers directly — warning about deepfakes triggering nuclear conflict, mentioning AI "going rogue." These are the words of a man waiting for the right plan, not a man deaf to the risks.
Critically, the political ground has shifted dramatically beneath the current posture. A Yahoo/YouGov poll found 53% believe AI will "destroy humanity" someday, while 63% believe it's likely "humans won't be able to control it anymore." Meanwhile, Pew Research reports that 57% of Americans rate the societal risks of AI as high — with concern steadily increasing month over month. And 77% favor a strong AI treaty.
These numbers are staggering. And they're only going in one direction.
What Will Be Trump's "Hospitals Overflowing" Moment?
With COVID, the trigger was viscerally visible: overwhelmed hospitals, crashing markets, daily death counts on every screen. That made the threat undeniable and created the political permission for a dramatic response.
With AI, the existential risk is still anticipatory — terrifying in projection, but not yet visceral. So what would Trump's tipping point be?
We believe it will come from one or a mix of three forces, likely arriving closer together than most expect:
First, a continued spike in citizen concern. The polling is already dramatic, and each month brings new data showing Americans increasingly alarmed. A TIME analysis notes that a populist backlash against AI is already brewing — from data center protests in Texas to bipartisan calls for tech companies to pay their fair share. With Trump's approval ratings at historic lows of 35-40%, ignoring a supermajority of concerned voters becomes politically untenable.
Second, a major AI accident or crisis. A catastrophic deepfake incident, a significant AI system failure with real-world consequences, an autonomous system causing harm at scale — any of these could crystallize abstract risk into concrete reality overnight. Much like COVID's first hospital surge, such an event would compress years of gradual awareness into days of urgent demand for action.
Third — and perhaps most decisive — a powerful joint pitch from trusted voices. Trump doesn't read policy papers. He reads people. If a critical mass of influencers he respects — think Elon Musk, JD Vance, Steve Bannon, Pope Leo XIV, Sam Altman, Dario Amodei — converge on the message that uncontrolled AI threatens everything including his legacy and his family's future, the dynamic changes entirely. Not one voice alone, but a chorus from across the ideological spectrum: conservative humanists, tech leaders, and religious authorities united in saying this requires your kind of bold action.
Why the Analogy Holds
The Operation Warp Speed parallel isn't just rhetorical. It maps precisely onto what's needed:
Speed over bureaucracy. Warp Speed succeeded because Trump gave HHS unprecedented autonomy and told his team "no limit" on resources. An AI treaty negotiation run with the same urgency — using the constitutional convention model we propose at cbpai.org — could compress what normally takes decades into months.
Public-private partnership. Just as Warp Speed brought together government agencies, pharma companies, and the military logistics of the Department of Defense, an AI treaty would require coordinating the White House, leading AI labs, and international partners. Trump has proven he can orchestrate exactly this kind of coalition.
Peace through strength, not surrender. Warp Speed wasn't seen as government overreach — it was seen as decisive American leadership. Similarly, a US-led global AI treaty isn't multilateral weakness. It's America writing the rules of the AI age from a position of dominance — before that position erodes.
Legacy-defining ambition. Warp Speed is routinely cited as Trump's single greatest first-term achievement. A US-China AI treaty — one that prevents catastrophe while securing American leadership — would eclipse it. As we've written, it could be worth 100 Nobel Peace Prizes.
The Window Is Open
Four Trump-Xi summits are planned for 2026. China's leadership has repeatedly called for global AI governance. 77% of US voters support a strong international AI treaty. And most of Trump's key AI policy influencers are increasingly vocal about the risks.
Trump went from COVID skeptic to Operation Warp Speed in a matter of weeks — delivering the fastest vaccine development in history. The same instincts, applied to AI, could produce the most consequential treaty since the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The demand for leadership exists. What's missing is the supply. We're working to change that.
The Coalition for a Baruch Plan for AI (CBPAI) is a coalition of 10 international NGOs and 40+ advisors working to catalyze a bold US-China-led global AI treaty. Read our full Strategic Memo or join our effort.
